Find the correct data. This helps you apply the concepts we used in the first part of the course in an real time data macro data anlaysis exercise. Please make sure that you specifically find the correct data and use them to build the arguments.

Assignment Task

Content: The idea of each task is to make you

(a) Find the correct data. This helps you apply the concepts we used in the first part of the course in an real time data macro data anlaysis exercise.

1. Please make sure that you specifically find the correct data and use them to build the arguments.
2. The data is easily available in Australian Bureau of Statistics website. The links are also provided in the question.
3. The key is to identify the correct file for each task. Use lecture notes for guidance or ask me or your tutors for clarification.

(b) The second aim of the content part is to learn how to correctly visualize the data and interpret the findings.

• This is critical learning and you have to choose the right plots to visualize the data. 2. When the analysis requires external sources or discussion, please adequately cite sources. If it is a conjecture, please write it explicitly.
• Presentation: The figures should be self sufficient i.e. have x-axis and y-axis marked, have a title, legends and a source right under the figure. You can also put some notes under the figure which will help the reader come to the same conclusions as you have in your assignment.
• Replication file: All the data that you use should be in a single excel file with sheets.

Gross Domestic Product

1. Download the data (Link below q4) for Nominal and Real GDP for Australia from the Australian Bureau of Statistics website. Using this table will narrow your search: Table 1: Key National Accounts Aggregates. Plot the Nominal GDP for Australia and the Real GDP for Aus- tralia. What can you tell us about the real GDP for the 70s and the nominal GDP for the 70s. Why do you observe the difference between the two? Hint: The data for nominal and real GDP will be in Australian Dollars ($ million).
2. There are three kinds of measure for Real GDP. These are labeled “series types” in the excel file corresponding to Table 1. Plot on a single figure the the real GDP for Australia when the series type is “Original” and “Seasonally Adjusted”. What is the reason for the difference?
3. Calculate the year-on-year growth rate using the seasonally adjusted RGDP for Australia for the entire sample. Plot these year on year growth in a figure. Do your own research and provide some reasons for the long-term slowdown for Australia. When using evidence to substantiate your arguments, cite the source appropriately. When unsure, it is always best to provide more evidence.
4. Calculate the annualized growth rate for the same series. Now plot the year-on-year and annualized growth rate in a same figure. What do you notice about the difference between the two estimates? What are the reasons for the difference?

Unemployment

5. Download (link below) the labour force statistic for Australia from the ABS website: Table 1. Labour force status by Sex, Australia – Trend, Seasonally adjusted and Original. Plot the labor force participation rate for Australia (persons). Be careful and use the seasonally adjusted measure for labor force. What are the striking features of this figure? Describe any three.
6. Plot the year on year growth in labor force participation rate for persons. What was the number for Feb 2024? Give the rate of growth up to 3 decimal places. What do these figures for October tell us about the long run trend of participation rate?
7. Plot the unemployment rate for Australia from Feb 1978 to October 2023. What is the average monthly unemployment rate for the last 24 months? Is this high or lower than the sample average? What does this imply?
8. What is the general trend in unemployment, if any? What are the reasons for the trend? Do your own research and provide some reasons for the long-term trends for unemploy- ment in Australia.
9. Plot the unemployment rate for only full time workers on top of the unemployment rate plotted earlier. The new rate refers to the category of unemployed workers who are looking for full-time work. What is the average monthly unemployment rate for the last 24 months? How do you interpret this number and what is your explanation for the gap between this and the unemployment numbers?
10. Download the duration statistics for Australia from the ABS website: Table 14a. Unem- ployed persons by duration of job search and sex. Plot the median duration of job search for persons, male and females. Make sure you plot the de-seasonalized version of the statistic. What do you observe and what do you think are the reasons for the trend? Do your own research and provide some reasons for the long-term trends for different gender groups in Australia.
11. Download the labour force statistic for Australia from the ABS website: TABLES 1 and 2. CPI: All Groups, Index Numbers and Percentage Changes. Plot the CPI based inflation for Australia since Q3 1949. Is there evidence of a falling inflation over the long term? Why do you think this is true? If yes, are we richer than our great grandparents? Can you extend a counter-argument and reason it with the same data?
12. Let us break this aggregate CPI down into its component parts to understand which are the commodity blocks which are causing inflation. You have access to monthly inflation since Sept 2017 for all components of CPI given in TABLE 1. Monthly CPI Indicator: All groups, Groups, select Expenditure classes and Analytical series, Australia. Plot a figure which explains the difference in total CPI inflation based on its component differences for Feb 2024, 2023 and 2022. On this basis of your plot, provide three insights which according to you explain the recent inflation episode based on the component inflation.