Suppose you hear a noise coming from the attic of your house. You consider the hypothesis that there are gremlins up there bowling: Philosophy Assignment, UCD, Ireland
Suppose you hear a noise coming from the attic of your house. You consider the hypothesis that there are gremlins up there bowling. The likelihood of this hypothesis is very high since if there are gremlins bowling in the attic, there probably will be noise.
So, the law of likelihood says that the gremlin hypothesis is very well supported. But this is silly. The noises we hear do not make it at all likely that there are gremlins up there bowling. This is not a well-supported hypothesis at all. Hence, the law of likelihood is false.
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